Texas Flood Disaster Analysis

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Description: My brain is wired differently so I tackle any and all natural disaster solution engineering deploying my secret weapon of choice Math & Physics so my deepest condolences to the victims of this flood because none of them actually had to die… After reviewing videos and some satellite photos of Guadalupe River prior and during this tragic event, in my estimation the quantified event (peak Q ~36,700 cfs, volume surge ~370 million gallons in 45 minutes) highlights the EXTREME power of flash floods in Kerr County Texas so I think that it is incumbent upon their slothful MAGA G-fag government to protecting their residents as this solution demands an engineered system combining hyper-local real-time sensing, predictive modeling, automated multi-channel alert triggering (WEA, Sirens, NOAA Radio, Mass Notification), and robust public education. Say KNOWLEDGE IS POWER! Now repeat again and again! Good!

Next, in my book of engineering solutions is redundancy, low latency, and clear, authoritative messaging coming from a bona fide government agency in order to be non-negotiable. Investment in sensor density, model sophistication, and reliable communication infrastructure is essential to overcome the extreme time constraints and save lives in Flash Flood Alley because their systems now are a COMPLETE TEXAS GOVERNOR FOR A CLOWN JOKE! Hey is your governor clown surname Abbot or Abutt?

Jus wondering…

So lemme without further bullshit reveal my analysis as I disclose to you in detail how I quantified their lethal “Flood Event”as Guadalupe River ROSE a mother flicked 26 ft in 45 min as some major points — WHOA! That’s a whole lot of water flow you don’t want to be caught off guard with! So I will reveal my entire analysis publicly so that if you are a math genius you can verify my results for yourself, but if you suck at math, you can use
my own formula anywhere in the World to avoid drowning like American Citizens in Texas…

I start with > “Vertical Rise Rate:”
Rise (Δh) = 26 ft
Time (Δt) = 45 minutes = 0.75 hours
Vertical Rise Rate (dh/dt) = Δh / Δt = 26 ft / 0.75 hr ≈ 34.67 ft/hr, dig all that?

Then lemme keep crunching because this is an extreme rate, characteristic of Flash Flood Alley in the State of Texas by the way so next I estimated “Water Flow” (Discharge - Q):
Discharge (Q) = Cross-Sectional Area (A) x Average Velocity (V)
So what is the challenge here? A and V change drastically during the rise — duh! Hey, is your stupid ass related to Donald Trump? Just wondering because if he were any good at math, he would have been ABLE to easily figure out that all the migrants he is deporting could have PAID OFF ENTIRE U.S. NATIONAL
DEBT, CLEAN FREAQIN SLATE! However, for now let me steer clear of idiot Trump and focus next on “representative geometry.”
You gottuh stay with me cause my brain rolls at warp speed so my assumptions (Based on typical Guadalupe River geometry near Kerrville during flood stage) are as follows:
Pre-flood Base Width (B_base): ~80 ft
Bank Height (H_bank): ~10-15 ft (before significant overbank flow)
Channel Shape: Trapezoidal approximation (very common for rivers not just American but throughout planet Earth).
Side Slope (Z): I Aassume 3:1 (Horizontal:Vertical) for natural banks.
Post-rise Depth (h): ~26 ft (above pre-flood level, implying significant overbank flow).
Cross-Sectional Area (A) My Personal Calculation:
Area within Banks (A_channel) ≈ (B_base + Z / H_bank) H_bank
Using H_bank = 12 ft: A_channel ≈ (80 ft + 3 / 12 ft) 12 ft = (80 + 36) 12 = 116 / 12 = 1,392 ft²
Overbank Area (A_overbank): Flooding extends onto floodplain. I assume floodplain width (W_fp) = 500 ft (very conservative estimate by the way for a significant river rise). So average overbank depth = (Total h - H_bank) / 2 = (26 - 12)/2 = 7 ft.
A_overbank ≈ W_fp / Avg Overbank Depth = 500 ft / 7 ft = 3,500 ft²
Total Estimated Area (A) ≈ A_channel + A_overbank = 1,392 ft² + 3,500 ft² = 4,892 ft²
My average Velocity (V) Estimation:
During extreme flash floods, velocities of Guadalupe River tend to be very high so what I do is use “Manning's Equation” for guidance, but recognize limitations under transient, debris-laden flow as in the short video footage I posted you can see a house floating on the river with residents stranded inside.. Yes I always think of everything, not to worry so…
Manning's Equation: V = (1.49 / n)/ R^(2/3) /S^(1/2)
n (Manning's Roughness): High due to brush, trees, buildings on floodplain. I use n ≈ 0.08 - 0.12.
R (Hydraulic Radius) ≈ A / P. P (Wetted Perimeter) is complex during overbank flow so my rough estimate is R ≈ 5-8 ft.
S (Slope): Kerr County terrain is hilly like two of my properties in California so I use S ≈ 0.01 - 0.02 ft/ft (1-2% slope).
Calculation (Example): V ≈ (1.49 / 0.1) / (6)^(2/3)/ (0.015)^(1/2) ≈ 14.9 / (6)^0.666 / 0.1225 ≈ 14.9 / 3.30 / 0.1225 ≈ 6.0 ft/s
My conservative Velocity Estimate: V ≈ 5 - 10 ft/s. I use V ≈ 7.5 ft/s for calculation.
My estimated “Peak Discharge” (Q):
Q = A / V ≈ 4,892 ft² / 7.5 ft/s ≈ 36,690 cubic feet per second (cfs)
My sidenote: My estimate is rough cause actual peak Q could range from 25,000 cfs to over 50,000 cfs depending on specific topography, constrictions, rainfall intensity distribution, and antecedent conditions so 36,700 cfs is a credible order-of-magnitude estimate for this extreme event but again, I am not down in Texas so you need to be aware of that, duh!

How I estimate water quantity REVEALED / so Volume - V):
My Challenge: The flood wave is a “surge” not a steady rise so volume depends on “inflow duration” and watershed response so my “Simplified Approach:” Volume = Average Discharge during Rise / “Time of Rise” so if discharge starts near 0 and peaks near 36,700 cfs you can justifiably assume a triangular hydrograph shape (common for flash floods by the way). So “Average Discharge” (Q_avg) ≈ Peak Q / 2 ≈ 36,700 cfs / 2 ≈ 18,350 cfs while “Time of Rise” (Δt) = 45 min = 2700 seconds will result in my “Estimated Volume Surge” (V):
V = Q_avg / Δt ≈ 18,350 ft³/s / 2700 s ≈ 49,545,000 cubic feet
Conversion:
Acre-feet: 49,545,000 ft³ / 43,560 ft³/acre-ft ≈ 1,137 acre-feet
Gallons: 49,545,000 ft³ / 7.48052 gal/ft³ ≈ 370.7 million gallons
This volume by the way — represents the additional water passing a point during the 45-minute rise phase of the flood wave.

Bored with my calculations cause you hate Math?

That’s what I thought so lemme hitchuh with my unique but practical engineering “Alert Solutions” for Residents of
either this Texas County or anywhere on planet Earth in your own Country where you reside… I’m case of this American County the extreme rise rate (34+ ft/hr) and short warning time (<45 min from first significant rise) clearly demands a multi-layered, robust, and redundant alert system so let me show you how to solve this problem:

I begin by clarifying “Core Principles:”
Redundancy: “No single point of failure,” get that good!
I GO Multi-Channel: Reach people through diverse methods.
ALWAYS — “Hyper-Local Targeting:” Alerts “only” for areas under immediate threat to avoid FALSE ALARMS 100%!
“Authority & Clarity:” Messages must be from trusted GOVERNMENT sources (Sheriff, OEM) with clear, actionable instructions ("EVACUATE NOW VIA ROUTE X"). AND OR: Blame Elon and his DOGE if you don’t get out of harms way in time — just kidding!
Why I go “Low Latency:” To minimize time from threat detection to alert —>>>reception, YOU GOT THAT?
ALL-Hazards Integration: Americans in Texas can easily leverage existing infrastructure (WEA, IPAWS) and so can you in your country whatever you got right now to use as foundation to build upon so lemme hitchuh with my own “Engineered Alert Solutions” and you can cherry pick whatever you like so I’ll just hitchuh with it goin random hence issues such as relevant System , Target , Engineering Solutions, Advantages, Limitations, and so on and forth but you can go LOCO cause there are only a million ways of getting it done… So let’s assume it’s 1:00 am and most residents are indoors sound asleep so how can you reach them? You can easily do a “Cell Broadcast (WEA) and HIT their American mobile phones as in case of Americans (not your country perhaps?) integrate with County OEM & NWS IPAWS so you message geo-targeted to cell towers in precise threat polygons, easy right? What about a wider reach incl. visitors? It could also be federally managed to ensure it is fast but at 1:00 am consider “Phone off/silent/no signal in rural Texas, also public ALERT desensitization (I deactivate all public alerts on all my mobiles…) message length limits, etc… Hiu can also do what is called a “Reverse 911 “Mass Notification” and also hit Landlines/+ Cell and make it more robust with a database management (resident opt-in), automated dialing systems linked to GIS threat mapping and can deliver voice instructions directly and what you want is laser-accuracy, call answer rate, time to dial thousands, cell number opt-in required, then you may want to roll OUT “Smart Device Apps” for “Mobile Phones” either g-fag county-developed or partner app (e.g., in case of American slothful g-fags they got FEMA) with mandatory opt-in for residents. Utilize GPS for hyper-local alerts with killer visuals with rich media (humans even in Texas are VISUAL CREATURES despite their “MOO, moo, mooing, (maps, instructions), persistent presence. but that requires app download/installation, phone on/charged but you can supplement with PWA rollout cause it requires no AppStore playstore publishing — duh!

Americans also have NOAA Weather Radio, and their relevant businesses can promote & subsidize purchase of emergency encoded radios after they ensure adequate transmitter coverage county-wide because it works 24/7, has battery backup, wakes users, specific area coding (SAME) but downside to that is that it requires purchase, must be turned on/functional, and public awareness needed some just mention it as an option… Other than that, all Americans have access to AM/FM Radio/TV so a bona fide County .gov can pre-negotiate EAS agreements with local broadcasters for immediate interruption.

Why is that? Wide reach within signal area.

And downside?

People not listening/watching, power outage. I for example NEVER WASTE A SECOND WATCHING TV cause I consider it a total waste of time!

What about potential Internet Alerts? It allows to
Slam dunk ALWRT delivery via Computers/Phones so you can do a county website banner, social media blast (platform X formerly Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, MyVideoTime.com, and many others), ISP home page takeover (coordinated) which allows for broad reach and supplements ALERT dissemination but useless due to power outages and when people are t online at 1:00 am! I would also weaponize AI for ALERT messaging so all smart home devices as County G fags can explore partnerships (Amazon Alexa, Google Home) for IPAWS/WEA integration to trigger voice alerts so high emergency alert pitch hence audible, attention-grabbing within homes and gather analytics on penetration rate, device setup/power status and perhaps deploy profanity as a weapon screaming “YOU ARE ANOUT TO DIE BIYCH, RUN!” Just kidding!

This in addition to “Outdoor Alerts such as SIRENS BLARING for General Public but this requires “Strategic placement” so river corridors, low points, populated areas outside, etc., with key features to implement being rotating/voice, solar/battery backup, mesh networking, and allows for “Immediate auditory warning, works 24/7, no opt-in needed but this has limited range (esp. indoors/background noise), requires maintenance, has false alarm risk, and has directional sound propagation which rising water noise can overpower to certain extent depending on environment’s ambient noise… But County G-fags can also install “Variable Message Signs (VMS) on roadways and have permanent installations on key evacuation routes. Display clear instructions ("FLOODING AHEAD - TURN AROUND, STOP BITCH, STOP!") so that signage directs motorists to make critical traffic decisions but this has limited locations issues and may suffer from power dependency?

If none else local County G-fags can do a “Mobile Public Address” in Cities and isolated Areas by tasking their Sheriff/Constable innState of Texas to in patrol vehicles equipped with powerful PA systems target neighborhoods with AUDIBLE warnings as this method is flexible, targeted, it requires human element and has limited coverage and also requires deployment time, and mandatory personnel availability which you may not have the luxury of during catastrophic flash flood events? But you can have “Community Hubs” to serve as “Central Points” automated alerting to churches, schools, fire stations, community centers to activate local notification (bells, PA) as this leverages trusted local centers, community engagement places and makes Churches earn their 501 C 3 stead of milking IRS for free TAX exemptions so their Pastors could fly closer to Jesus in their private Jet — just kidding! This Methodist dependent on hub being open/staffed, activation speed.

And for dead fucks you can deploy “Sensor-Triggered Lights” on Trails/at Camps solar-powered of course with rugged LED strobes near river crossings/campgrounds activated by stage sensors or central command as they direct warning at point of danger, visual, but have limited audience (outdoor users), maintenance, subject to vandalism.

Regardless of, focus and emphasis should be on “Critical Engineering Enhancements” so you want a “Dense Sensor Network” and to perhaps even deploy a robust, telemetered stream gauges (radar/ultrasonic) & rain gauges throughout the upper Guadalupe watershed and tributaries because after you get your. County G-fag stupid head out of your ass you can figure out that “real-time data feeds predictive models,” WHOA! So for “Predictive Modeling” you want to Implement high-resolution hydrologic (rainfall-runoff) & hydraulic (flood wave routing) models** (e.g., HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS 2D) calibrated to YOUR past floods. Use real-time sensor data for dynamic forecasting and as for “Geofencing & GIS Integration” you need to precisely define flood-prone areas and CLARIFY evacuation zones. Automate alert targeting based on model predictions crossing critical thresholds within these polygons I just aforementioned.
As far as “Redundant Communication Backhaul” I would ensure sensor data and alert triggers use multiple paths (cellular, satellite radio, landline, mesh radio) to prevent single-point failure… Hey, are you Texan g-fags like really fuckin stupid or what exactly? Just wondering cause nobody had to die…,

As far as “Automated Alert Triggering” you idiots need to define clear thresholds (e.g., stage rise rate > 5 ft/hr, predicted stage > critical level in < 60 min) to initiate alerts automatically via IPAWS/WEA, sirens, etc., while simultaneously notifying emergency managers and for God sakes bitch start doing “Public Education & Drills” cause they are crucial for effectiveness so do regularly educate your fuckin residents on alert meanings, evacuation routes, and the life-threatening speed of flash floods. Conduct drills and then go fuck yourselves in them hills cause I ain’t here to join you but to fuck you with satire every time you fuck up!

This is all you get now go fuck yourselves!

Don’t ever thing you will get to pitch me fuckin recruitment cause I’ll peel the skin off your fuckin ass with a pairing knife!

I kill spiders for fun!

My mathematically sound analysis indicates crystal clear that NOBODY HAD TO DROWN and while I am NIT here to point fingers at anyone I bring forth solutions in abundance which anyone can take off this site of mine and apply ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD unless they want to drown like Texans do all because their government chose to be prepared for very common natural disaster throughout their County..

Moreover, while I mentioned quite a few engineering solutions, there is only a million more so go at it cause in solution engineering there is actually NOTHING IMPOSSIBLE TO “ENGINEER!”

But wait, I intentionally LEFT the BEST FOR LAST in engineering department physics blast… You see, WHATEVER humans engineer on Earth, can easily be replicated for retrofit on other celestial bodies beside our only habitat we know since our birthing as planet Earth because Earth’s gravity is the primary constraint for launch energy and surface infrastructure, demanding high-strength materials and massive propulsion but Mars offers a whopping 62% gravity relief (WHOA! You get to go LOCO on human habitat from engineering standpoint, idiots fail to see that…) enabling heavier payloads per kW and simpler ascent, but introduces unique challenges: extreme cold, dust, and power limitations so American and Russian space engineers prioritize minimizing Earth-launched mass, while Martian systems leverage low-gravity efficiency with robust environmental hardening so basically nothing is stopping humanity from SOACE COLONIZATION as both the Moon as well as Mars are well within reach of human Colonization for our species and yet, humans who are well in twenty first century are still too slothful to engineer a decent ALERT system for their citizens not just in Texas, but all over the World!

(DISCLAIMER: Space Colonization would be as easy as breathing if humans finally got their stupid heads out of their asses and figures out that portable nuclear energy can power a spaceship of mega size for only a THOUSAND YEARS at a time as well as colonies which can be 3D printed from cellestial body materials in abundance and of course within confines of American Laws tasking of Nuclear management falls in the lap of their DeepArtMent of Energy so the powertrain regardless of components provision of the mothership would be managed by them as it is their exclusive domain duh!)????

As the Texas County Government, that falls within confines of your JOB DESCRIPTION so as I mathematics and sheer quantified physics hitchuh, don’t let your own government’s stupidity beat’chuh and you drown swept of your feet, while You coulduh lived and lion-leaped!

~Stateless Warrior
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